fix: anomalie fenêtres 3j+7j (worst-case) + carte plus large PC
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- normales.ts : computeAnomaly évalue 2 fenêtres (3j pour détecter un pic récent, 7j pour la tendance lissée), retient la pire catégorie. Évite de noyer un +15°C sur 3 jours dans 4 jours précédents normaux. - FranceMap : max-w-3xl → max-w-5xl (1024px sur PC, plus lisible). Mapping dept → station SYNOP (script build-stations-synop.mjs + json statique) pour préparer l'intégration hourly via API Météo France officielle. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
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6 changed files with 592 additions and 33 deletions
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@ -32,8 +32,18 @@ export async function normaleForMonth(dept: string, month: number): Promise<Mont
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return arr[month - 1] ?? null;
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}
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export type AnomalyCategory =
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| 'normal'
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| 'warm'
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| 'cool'
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| 'anomaly_warm'
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| 'anomaly_cool'
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| 'extreme_warm'
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| 'extreme_cool'
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| 'unknown';
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export interface Anomaly {
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windowDays: number;
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windowDays: number; // fenêtre dominante retenue (3 ou 7)
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meanTx: number | null;
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meanTn: number | null;
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normaleTx: number | null;
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@ -42,17 +52,10 @@ export interface Anomaly {
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diffTn: number | null;
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sigmaTx: number | null; // diffTx / txStd
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sigmaTn: number | null;
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/**
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* - 'normal' : |sigma| <= 1
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* - 'warm' / 'cool' : 1 < |sigma| <= 2
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* - 'anomaly_warm' / 'anomaly_cool' : |sigma| > 2 (déviation significative)
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* - 'extreme_warm' / 'extreme_cool' : |sigma| > 3
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* - 'unknown' : pas de normale
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*/
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txCategory: 'normal' | 'warm' | 'cool' | 'anomaly_warm' | 'anomaly_cool' | 'extreme_warm' | 'extreme_cool' | 'unknown';
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txCategory: AnomalyCategory;
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}
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function categorize(sigma: number | null): Anomaly['txCategory'] {
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function categorize(sigma: number | null): AnomalyCategory {
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if (sigma === null || !Number.isFinite(sigma)) return 'unknown';
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const abs = Math.abs(sigma);
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if (abs > 3) return sigma > 0 ? 'extreme_warm' : 'extreme_cool';
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@ -61,38 +64,42 @@ function categorize(sigma: number | null): Anomaly['txCategory'] {
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return 'normal';
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}
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export async function computeAnomaly(dept: string, days: DayObservation[]): Promise<Anomaly | null> {
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if (days.length === 0) return null;
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const recent = days.slice(-7);
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if (recent.length === 0) return null;
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// Sévérité ordonnée pour comparer 2 fenêtres et retenir la pire.
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const SEVERITY: Record<AnomalyCategory, number> = {
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unknown: -1, normal: 0, cool: 1, warm: 1,
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anomaly_cool: 2, anomaly_warm: 2,
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extreme_cool: 3, extreme_warm: 3,
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};
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// Représentatif : moyenne des 7 derniers jours
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function buildWindow(days: DayObservation[], windowSize: number, nrm: MonthNormale): Omit<Anomaly, 'txCategory'> & { txCategory: AnomalyCategory } {
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const recent = days.slice(-windowSize);
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const txs = recent.map((d) => d.tx).filter((v): v is number => v !== null);
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const tns = recent.map((d) => d.tn).filter((v): v is number => v !== null);
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const meanTx = txs.length ? +(txs.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / txs.length).toFixed(1) : null;
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const meanTn = tns.length ? +(tns.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / tns.length).toFixed(1) : null;
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// Mois représentatif : médian des 7 jours
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const middleDate = recent[Math.floor(recent.length / 2)].date;
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const month = parseInt(middleDate.slice(5, 7), 10);
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const nrm = await normaleForMonth(dept, month);
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if (!nrm) return null;
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const diffTx = meanTx !== null && nrm.tx !== null ? +(meanTx - nrm.tx).toFixed(1) : null;
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const diffTn = meanTn !== null && nrm.tn !== null ? +(meanTn - nrm.tn).toFixed(1) : null;
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const sigmaTx = diffTx !== null && nrm.txStd > 0 ? +(diffTx / nrm.txStd).toFixed(2) : null;
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const sigmaTn = diffTn !== null && nrm.tnStd > 0 ? +(diffTn / nrm.tnStd).toFixed(2) : null;
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return {
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windowDays: recent.length,
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meanTx,
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meanTn,
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normaleTx: nrm.tx,
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normaleTn: nrm.tn,
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diffTx,
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diffTn,
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sigmaTx,
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sigmaTn,
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windowDays: recent.length, meanTx, meanTn,
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normaleTx: nrm.tx, normaleTn: nrm.tn,
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diffTx, diffTn, sigmaTx, sigmaTn,
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txCategory: categorize(sigmaTx),
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};
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}
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export async function computeAnomaly(dept: string, days: DayObservation[]): Promise<Anomaly | null> {
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if (days.length === 0) return null;
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const middleDate = days.slice(-7)[Math.floor(Math.min(7, days.length) / 2)].date;
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const month = parseInt(middleDate.slice(5, 7), 10);
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const nrm = await normaleForMonth(dept, month);
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if (!nrm) return null;
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// Évalue 2 fenêtres en parallèle : 3 jours (détecte les pics récents) et 7 jours (tendance lissée).
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// Retient la pire catégorie pour éviter de noyer un événement aigu dans un lissage trop long.
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const w3 = buildWindow(days, 3, nrm);
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const w7 = buildWindow(days, 7, nrm);
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const worst = (SEVERITY[w3.txCategory] ?? -1) >= (SEVERITY[w7.txCategory] ?? -1) ? w3 : w7;
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return worst;
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}
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